US Manufacturing Sector Shows Signs of Stabilization in July

August 01, 2023: The US manufacturing sector exhibited signs of stabilization in July, with the final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 49.0, the same as the preliminary reading.

Understanding the PMI:

The PMI is a crucial economic indicator that provides insights into the manufacturing sector’s health. It is calculated by analyzing data from a panel of around 800 manufacturers who respond to questionnaires. The index is a weighted average of five components: New Orders, Output, Employment, Suppliers’ Delivery Times, and Stocks of Purchases. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction.

July’s Manufacturing PMI Highlights:

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI remained at 49.0 in July, indicating the sector’s operating conditions stabilized after a downturn in the previous months.
• New orders declined as both domestic and external demand conditions remained subdued.
• Companies scaled back their input buying, leading to a significant depletion of inventory holdings.
• Despite lower backlogs of work, firms increased employment faster, showing increased confidence in future output.
• Raw material costs saw a renewed rise, although only marginally.
• Selling prices remained broadly stable for the second month as manufacturers sought to remain competitive and boost sales.

Actionable Takeaways:

Manufacturers should closely monitor domestic and international demand conditions to adapt their production and inventory management strategies accordingly.

They are maintaining competitive pricing strategies while controlling costs is vital to sustaining sales and profitability in a challenging sales environment.

Firms must focus on streamlining supply chains to mitigate the impact of input cost fluctuations and maintain inventory levels in line with demand.

Confidence in the outlook for output may warrant further investment in hiring and upskilling employees to enhance workforce productivity.

Looking Ahead:

Despite the softening in July, the manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize further in the coming months, as forecasts project the PMI to be 48.80 points by the end of the current quarter.

Long-term projections foresee the US Manufacturing PMI trending around 53.00 points in 2024 and 52.00 points in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery.